GripRoom’s Top 4 for Predictions for 2022

This seems like a fun yearly tradition that some other investors are doing, so here are mine. I didn’t want to do a top 10 list because the more predictions you make, the more likely you are to be wrong.

These four predictions I feel very confident about.

1. Gilead finally gets some respect

For years, the share price of Gilead Sciences has remained stagnant. They had some setbacks in the last few years (filgotinib, inhaled remdesivir, clinical holds, etc) but the number of catalysts in 2022 is hard to ignore.

Gilead is also working on an oral version of remdesivir, which if it works, might turn into the highest-selling drug of all time. (Especially if it uses the LNC formulation from Matinas Biopharma.)

Theoretically, this would act like Pfizer’s pill, Pavloxid, but would have higher efficacy and a better toxicity profile. Gilead also has a two-year head start on manufacturing. It should be easier for them to fulfil orders.

Imagine a pill with few (if any) side effects, that prevents SARS‑CoV‑2 from replicating in your body. If taken early enough, this could almost totally eliminate the chance of hospitalization. Think you have Covid? Pop some pills and go about your life.

Even without LNC oral remdesivir, Gilead’s oncology programs should allow them to cruise past $85. Recent successes with their CAR-T program should allow for additional revenue. There are also numerous trodelvy readouts on the way.

However, if oral remdesivir is successful, the share price could jump to $140 or higher.

2. A more terrible variant emerges

Every time someone gets Covid, there’s a chance the virus mutates into something worse. Given the insanity that is Omicron, and the predictions that billions will be infected, this is just too many dice rolls.

Omicron already has dominance in the infection department. If it mutates into something with total vaccine escape, or high severity, we could be in trouble. Especially since most monoclonal antibody treatments are useless and vaccine antibodies appear to fade rapidly.

Thankfully remdesivir and Pavloxid still appear to work.

Better therapeutics are desperately needed. Hopefully we get them before a worse variant appears, but I am doubtful. Too little research is going into Covid-19 and we’re constantly playing catch up. Doctors need to apply triage outside of the hospital setting. Some diseases are not worth focusing on right now. Governments should be pouring research and grant money into novel Covid-19 treatments and therapies before it’s too late. Or in the words of Admiral Ackbar, “Concentrate all fire on that super star destroyer!”

3. Record setting M&A in small caps

Many small caps, especially in the biotech sector, are currently near 52-week-lows. This is in stark contrast to most large caps, which are near 52-week-highs. Some companies are flush with cash, which is not a great thing to be holding with the inflation rate near 10%.

Compare the weekly charts for $XBI and $SPY. See how big the divergence is since January 1st, 2020?

This is the perfect storm for bargain hunting. Large caps have the twin cannons of paper and cash. They can use these to buy almost anything.

Look at Pfizer. They have a market cap near 320 billion. Revenue estimates for 2022 are as high as 100 billion. That is just absolutely nuts. Pfizer could pay a 100% premium for almost any small cap biotech company and the note on their balance sheet would look like a rounding error.

4. Matinas Biopharma will go up at least 300%

This company appears to be on the verge of a breakout. While other small cap biotechs are languishing near 52-week-lows, $MTNB has held strong. This is due to the phenomenal oral amphotericin B data released in September, which was reinforced with further data in December.

Completely ignoring the upside potential of LNC oral remdesivir, this company should outperform its peers when biotech starts to recover.

They have numerous non-remdesivir catalysts in 2022 including cohort 4 data for MAT2203, initial data for MAT2501, the potential sale of Lypdiso, as well as additional pre-clinical readouts from various big pharma partners.

Matinas is not a company you want to bet against. Especially with the two most recent additions to the team, Kathryn Corzo (board of directors), and Thomas Hoover (Chief Business Officer.) LNC technology is a powerful platform. The applications for lipid nano-crystals are numerous. In a few years their pipeline could be as fat as big pharma.

That’s all, folks.

Late next December I’ll do another one of these and we’ll check in on these predictions. Thanks for reading and don’t forget to follow us on Twitter.