New Covid-19 Variant B.1.1.529 (Omicron) Emerges in Africa
On November 14th we published this article: Demand for Covid-19 Antivirals Will Exceed Supply.
It spoke about the Israeli war games that occurred on November 11th. These drills were to prepare for a potential Covid-19 variant they called “Omega.” Omega is a theoretical variant that could beat vaccines, is more infectious across all demographics (especially children) and could result in mass hospitalizations and a totally overwhelmed healthcare system.
Given that the B.1.1.529 variant appears to have emerged in October, it’s possible that these war games were in response to its mutation profile.
The new variant might be the deadliest variant yet. B.1.1.529 has 32 mutations including alterations to the spike protein (you know, that thing the vaccines target.)
Here are some of the possible ramifications of these mutations.
This variant is spreading faster than Delta in South Africa. Cases have also been reported in Botswana and Hong Kong. This variant also seems to affect young people.
Here is a graph showing cases in South Africa.
Keep in mind that we’re almost two years into the pandemic. We have virus prevention tools like vaccines, masks, lockdowns, and social distancing. Yet Nu variant cases in South Africa are exploding. Just look at the blue part on the graph. It’s almost a vertical line. Not even Delta did that.
The timing of the Israeli war games is concerning. They said it was due to a theoretical variant, but the Nu variant appeared in October. It’s possible that their war games were in response to this new variant. It could just be a coincidence, but the timing is interesting.
The new variant could have serious ramifications for the stock market.
If defeats vaccines and is more infectious, we could see replay of March 2020.
Stocks that might crash are things like airlines, cruise lines, casinos, movie theaters, retail stores, commercial real estate, etc. If everyone is staying at home, the price of oil might also fall off a cliff again.
Stocks that would do well during a worst-case-scenario Covid-19 variant would be tech stocks like Zoom and Shopify. Healthcare companies that sell vaccines, treatments, masks, and testing kits are also likely to rally. Gilead, Pfizer, Merck, Moderna, etc.
Scientists believe the B.1.1.529 variant comes from an immunocompromised individual, possibly with HIV.
Positivity rates in Tshwane (the metropolitan municipality that forms the local government of northern Gauteng Province in South Africa) jumped from 1% to 30% in about three weeks.
Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College described the mutation profile of B.1.1.529 as “horrific.” He also said this variant could be “worse than nearly anything else about.”
Here’s what some other doctors and scientists are saying.
Pretty wild stuff. Every discussion thread I’m seeing on the new variant has doctors and scientists very concerned. Nobody is saying this isn’t a big deal or not to worry. That’s a red flag for me.
This tweet sums up what’s happening in Europe right now, and the new variant hasn’t even gotten there yet.
If your job requires you to leave the house every day I would probably stock up on N95 masks.
Good luck out there and don’t forget to follow us on Twitter.
UPDATES:
November 25th, 2021
UK Government sources say the new variant is a, “potentially significant threat to the vaccine programme. [Source]
UK bans flights from South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini. [Source]
Israel bans travel from South Africa, Lesotho, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia and Eswatini. [Source]
UK officials say the spike protein in the new variant is dramatically different. Could possibly evade immune response. [Source]
South Africa reports an increase of 321% in Covid cases vs the same time last week. [Source]
November 26th, 2021
The first case of the B.1.1.529 variant was detected in Belgium. This person had recently travelled to Egypt via Turkey. [Source]
The EU recommends all members to block flights from countries with new variant cases. [Source]
New variant is labeled Omicron by the WHO, making GripRoom look dumb for assuming it would be called Nu. [Source]
November 27th, 2021
Germany and Czech Republic have reported suspected cases of the new variant. [Source]
Two cases of the two variant have been detected in England. More African countries are being added to travel restrictions. Angola, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia. [Source]
Israel is considering closing their borders to all foreigners. [Source]
First case of Omicron found in Italy. [Source]
